Going beyond the Middle East: With the US stuck in the conflict, China & Russia will have more room to manoeuvre
By Harsh V Pant
There is an all too familiar stench of death and destruction emanating from the Middle East. It is a full-on war from Israel’s perspective and Hamas’s terrorism has unleashed forces which would be very difficult to control. As the residents of Gaza come to terms with the limits of violence undertaken in their name, with hospitals in Gaza turning into morgues, there are reports of anti-Semitic attacks in the streets of Europe. The barbarism of Hamas is on display with Israelis discovering new evidence each day, and the retribution of Israel is gaining momentum. As Israelis and the Palestinians enter another phase of their violence-ridden relationship, large parts of the world are still not sure how to react. Political calculations are determining on which side to place the blame for the crisis that threatens to upend the regional and global order.
Despite his call that “this is a time that we must stand tall, united against evil”, he is fighting this with his back to the wall. He will be held accountable for the mismanagement of a nation that had been justifiably proud of its ability to function as a strong democracy amidst the dysfunctionality in its vicinity. His reputation for security competence has been seriously damaged with the biggest security failure in the country’s history under his watch amid reports that he was warned by Egypt of an impending attack. Internal divisions, both and political and social, have been growing in the recent months, and Netanyahu’s leadership was fanning the flames instead of trying to find ways out of the morass. The Netanyahu government’s plans to restrict the power of the judiciary were being challenged on a national scale, leading to one of the most serious political divisions in the nation’s history. Hamas took advantage of this turmoil and managed to give Israeli political establishment a jolt that will have long term implications for Israel as a society and its polity.
As Israel is working towards finalising a response, the US has made it clear that it is standing resolutely behind Tel Aviv. Yet, it has also asked Israel to exercise caution as its ground forces prepare for an offensive in the territory, saying it would be “a big mistake” for Israel to occupy Gaza. US president Joe Biden will be in Israel to learn firsthand how the Israeli Defense Force will conduct its operations in a way that “minimises civilian casualties” as the focus shifts to Israel’s next steps with its declaration that the siege of Gaza will not end until around 250 Israeli hostages taken into Gaza during Hamas’s deadly attacks are released. The fate of the hostages will remain a serious constraint on Israeli action in Gaza even as Israel has asked that everyone in north Gaza should relocate to the south.Palestinians are facing the brunt of Israeli airstrikes and the siege of Gaza, but from the Israeli vantage point, decapitating Hamas’s leadership and destroying its military infrastructure have emerged as critical strategic objectives. Marginalisation of the Palestinian Authority and the emergence of Hamas as a more credible alternative for many Palestinians will challenge the possibility of any kind of a peace deal. In any case, Hamas has never been very receptive to the idea of a peace treaty with Israel and has scuppered the Oslo peace process.
It could do this partly because of the backing of Iran. Tehran has worked for years now to build the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas as critical nodes in its regional strategy. Hamas has been receiving funding, weapons, and training from Iran, emerging as a key proxy of Tehran in its struggle against the Arab states and Israel. Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s top military adviser has come out in support of the attacks by Hamas against Israel and has underlined that Tehran would continue to back the Islamist fighters “until the liberation of Palestine and Jerusalem.”
Though there are reports from Washington that there is no evidence so far of direct Iranian involvement in the attacks, the impending Saudi-Israel rapprochement would have been a cause of concern for Tehran. The Hamas attacks have seemingly brought Iran together with the Saudis for the time being. The possibility of a wider regional escalation is real as Arab nations will come under increasing pressure from their streets to get involved. Hamas has fundamentally disrupted the extant order in the Middle East and what Israel does in the coming days will determine whether the past certainties in the region can still prevail.
For all the talk of China’s growing clout in the Middle East, this crisis has once again underlined the centrality of the US to the regional order. It is the US’s shuttle diplomacy and hard power that are likely to shape the contours of any kind of possible settlement among the parties involved. But with Washington now entrenched in the resolution of the Middle East crisis, both Russia and China have greater space to manoeuvre. Both Moscow and Beijing lost no time in abandoning Israel despite their once cosy ties with Tel Aviv as they remain intent on challenging the US-led international order.
The consequences of the ongoing Israel-Hamas crisis are not likely to be limited to the Middle East.
The writer is Vice president (studies and foreign policy), Observer Research Foundation