Closing Bell: Nifty closes above 19300, Sensex under 65k; Reliance Industries, JFS end lower following AGM

Market Closing Bell: Domestic equity indices NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex closed in the green on Monday, as traders celebrated the US Federal Reserve Chairman’s less hawkish stance and new measures by the Chinese authorities to support the markets. Nifty 50 closed at 19,306.05, while Sensex closed the trading session at 64,996.60, giving up the 65,000 level. The broader markets settled largely in the green, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 adding 0.5% and 0.74%. Sectorally, all indices save for Nifty FMCG, Nifty IT and Nifty Oil & Gas gained. Bank Nifty rose 0.6%, while Nifty Pharma, Nifty Realty and Nifty PSU Bank clocked the highest gains.

Technical Outlook

“Technically, although Nifty cleared the intraday resistance of 19350, it failed to close above the same due to profit booking at higher levels. The index has formed a double bottom formation near the important support level, indicating strong possibility of a pullback rally from the current levels. For day traders, as long as the index is holding 19220, the positive sentiment is likely to continue, above which, the pullback rally till 19400-19450. On the other side, below 19220, the selling pressure is likely to accelerate, and below the same the index could slip till 19150-19120,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Research (Retail), Kotak Securities.

RIL AGM

Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) has begun its 46th Annual General Meeting 2023 on Monday. While addressing the shareholders, RIL Chairman Mukesh Ambani said that Reliance Industries has cumulatively invested more than $150 billion in the last 10 years. Further, he added that RIL has also set new records in creating employment and has added 2.6 lakh jobs in FY23. Reliance, at the event, also announced that its Jio AirFiber will be launched on the occasion of Ganesh Chaturthi on September 19. Further, talking about Reliance Retail, Mukesh Ambani said that the valuation of Reliance Retail has almost doubled in less than 3 years, notwithstanding the intervening Covid-19 pandemic. The share price of Reliance Industries ended 1.27% lower at Rs 2,436.95, while Jio Financial Services gave up over 2% to settle at Rs 210.10 apiece.

USD-INR may consolidate within 81.70- 82.75, expect bargain buying near lower band; BoE, ECB eyed for cues

BY Dilip Parmar

The Indian rupee notched the best week since 3 March following the weaker greenback and risk-on sentiments. All Asian currencies gained against the US dollar in the week gone. However, the rupee underperforms among the region on weekly as well as month to date amid higher dollar demand from importers.

Short-term Outlook

Spot USDINR formed the Bullish Engulfing pattern on Friday, representing a change of sentiments. The pair has closed below 200 DMA but it has remained within 2 standard deviations of 20 DMA since February. We expect the pair to further consolidate between 81.70 to 82.75 and expect bargain buying near the lower band.

The ICE Dollar index registered its worst week in eight months following a fall in US yield after a surprise drop in monthly core inflation, the lowest since 2021, which led traders to abandon their previous idea that there might be two more rate increases still to come. The dollar fell and everything else climbed. The Japanese Yen and Euro gained the most against the US dollar among the major currencies. Elsewhere, a gauge of EM currencies saw its best week since January. Oil notched its third weekly advance, but fell on Friday as traders locked in profits and the commodity’s 200 DMA again provided a barrier to further advances.

As per the CFTC data, the flow was mixed during the week in the FX. Speculators sold Euro, Swiss franc and Australian dollar while gone for a long pound. However, they held a net short dollar position on aggregate of $12.5 billion.

What to Watch

China’s economy will be front and centre in the week ahead, starting with the People’s Bank of China setting its one-year rate on Monday. Later that day second-quarter GDP and June activity data. The UK and EU inflation report due Wednesday is set to be the week’s main event as it will help traders and investors fine-tune their bets on how far the Bank of England and ECB will raise interest rates after a strong repricing over the past week.

(Dilip Parmar is a Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

RIL stock outlook: Analysts bet on company’s new age technologies focus

RIL stock is trading lower though the company reiterated aggressive growth plans across various business verticals and unveiled plans on new energy front at the AGM on August 28. While the street seemed disappointed about the absence of clear timelines regarding the telecom and retail IPOs, RIL plans to setup a battery giga factory by 2026 with its first CBG plant commissioned in Uttar Pradesh. The retail segment will focus on rapid store expansion and brand partnership/acquisitions to accelerate growth.

For the longer term, however, market analysts believe that the focus on new age technologies might be useful. Swarnendu Bhushan – Co-Head of Research, Prabhudas Lilladher highlights the continued emphasis on new age technologies by RIL, “We believe RIL provides a good investment opportunity given 1) its transition towards new age technologies and 2) cash flow for growth serviced from traditional refining and petrochemical segment. The company is trading at 12.8x FY24 consolidated EV/EBITDA and 22.7x FY24 consolidated PE. We estimate consolidated EPS CAGR of 10.7% for FY23-FY25E and value Refining and petrochemical segment at 7.5x FY25 EV/EBITDA, Digital services at 15x FY25 EV/EBITDA and Retail at 37x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Key risks are project execution and technology risk in new energy.”

According to JM Financial analysis, “The company reiterated its plan to transition its O2C business into a sustainable, green, circular and consumer integrated chemicals and materials business. It also restated its New Energy business roadmap and its Rs 75000 crore capex commitment and announced its foray into wind power generation. We maintain BUY on RIL (TP of Rs 2,900/share) as we believe net debt concerns are overdone, and also because RIL has industry leading capabilities across businesses to drive robust 14-15% EPS CAGR over the next 3-5 years.”

India’s forex reserves jump above $600 billion; Spot USDINR to hover between Rs 82.30 and Rs 81.70

By Dilip Parmar

The Indian rupee appreciated for the second week in a row following dollar inflows. Local units remained the second best-performing currency among Asian baskets. In the week preceding, foreign institutions bought $1.2bn equities and $184mn debts while the rupee gained a quarter percent to 81.96 a dollar.

Outlook:

This week will be of high drama as we have 3 major central bank monetary policy decisions which could bring volatility back to the forex markets. Spot USDINR is expected to oscillate between Rs 82.30 and Rs 81.70.   

The ICE dollar index gained the most in 10 weeks amid a short-covering rally ahead of the Fed meeting. The yen tumbled more than 2% to 141.73 a dollar, on speculation the Bank of Japan won’t change its yield curve control program at this week’s policy meeting. Elsewhere, crude oil headed for a fourth weekly gain amid tentative signs of global market tightening.

Though the greenback trend remains bearish, short covering rallies may continue this week in anticipation of hawkish Fed and month-end adjustment. The ICE dollar index has support at 99.50 and resistance at 102.70.

CFTC Position

CFTC data for the week through July 18th reflect a significant deterioration in dollar sentiment. Speculative Accounts’ overall positioning against the dollar versus the major currencies reflected an aggregate short position of $19.9bn in the latest week. The week-over-week increase in aggregate dollar shorts of $7.4bn was the largest single-week positioning shift against the dollar since 2020.

What to Watch:

 All eyes will be on the Big 3 major central banks’ policy decisions. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are each expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. However, the most focus will be on policymakers’ signaling whether more hikes are likely or if they plan an extended pause. The Bank of Japan remains the outlier, with Governor Kazuo Ueda expected to continue pumping even as inflation remains above its 2% target.

(Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities Ltd. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

Share Market Highlights: Nifty closes over 19430, Sensex above 65k; NTPC, JFS among top gainers

Share Market News Today | Sensex, Nifty, Share Prices Highlights: Domestic equity indices NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex closed in the green on Friday. The NSE Nifty 50 closed at 19,435.30, while the Sensex closed the trading session at 65,387.16. The broader markets settled largely in the green, with Nifty Smallcap 50 and Nifty Smallcap 100 adding 1.61% and 1.17% respectively. Bank Nifty surged 1.02% to settle at 44436.10. Nifty Metal, Banks, Auto and IT were the leading gainers among the other sectoral indices.

Live Updates

Share Market Today | Sensex, Nifty, BSE, NSE, Share Prices, Stock Market News Live Updates

15:36 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Markets at Close

The NSE Nifty 50 closed at 19,435.30, while the Sensex closed the trading session at 65,387.16.

14:34 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Metal stocks gain

Nifty Metal index gained as much as 185.15 points or 2.78%. NMDC led the gains with a 5.32% increase, followed by Steel Authority of India (SAIL) at 4.74% and Hindustan Copper at 4.10%.

14:23 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Nifty IT soars

The Nifty IT index gained over 1% in trade on Friday, as Persistent Systems, Tech Mahindra, and LTIMindtree led the gains.

13:45 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Nifty PSU Bank zooms

The PSU Bank index gained 1.70% in trade on Friday, as Punjab National Bank, Bank of India and Canara Bank led the gains.

12:38 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Gold outlook

“Gold prices retreated on Friday, with spot gold at Comex trading down by 0.05% at $1938 per ounce in the morning session. Gold prices reversed from a multiweek high in the previous session on the back of mixed US economic data and an uptick in the dollar index. The dollar index showed more than 0.40% of daily gains in the previous session, putting pressure on precious metals.”

– Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities.

12:05 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Nifty Auto zooms

The Nifty Auto index gains over one percent in trade on Friday, as Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki and Bajaj Auto lead the gains.

11:01 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 India VIX outlook

India VIX increased by 14.75% from 10.51 to 12.06 levels in the August series. Volatility moved higher to 12.75 and remained on the higher band and created swings in the market and providing discomfort to the bulls.

10:25 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Metal stocks gain

Metal stocks experienced significant gains today. Tata Steel led with a 4.31% increase, followed by Steel Authority of India (SAIL) at 3.64%. Jindal Saw, Jindal Steel & Power, and Welspun Corp rose by around 3%.

09:35 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Headwinds affecting markets

“Headwinds stronger than tailwinds have pushed the Nifty down by 406 points in August. Some headwinds like weakening monsoon and sluggish global growth are likely to weigh on markets. And now there is another headwind coming from the Brent crude rising to $87. FPI flows in the cash market turned negative in August after strong positive flows in the previous three months. These headwinds will constrain a sustained recovery in markets.”

– V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

09:25 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Currency outlook

“Recovery attempts continue, but limited to 82.8 as expected. Upsides momentum appears to be increasing, prompting us to expect a spurt to 83.09, if 82.8 gives away. The prospects of downside break would be renewed only on push below 82.5.”

– Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services

09:19 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Markets at open

Local stock indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 began trading on a steady note on Friday. Nifty opened above the 19,250 level at 19,258.15, and Sensex rose by approximately 20 points from its previous close, starting at 64,855.51, maintaining its existing sideways trend.

09:06 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Bank Nifty support, resistance

Bank Nifty has a strong support at 43,600, and below that it would gradually fall to 43,300-43,350 levels. The resistance exists at 44,000 levels. The Nifty IT index is exhibiting a mixed activity, which would keep the sentiment volatile.

– Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Research (Retail), Kotak Securities

08:40 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Support, resistance levels

“Nifty closed in the lower half of the day’s range on the highest volume recorded for the quarter and marked the seventh distribution day in the rally. The drawdown was arrested near the support zone of 19,250-19,235 and it will be crucial that the zone remains intact on a closing basis to attract bullish strength.”

Support: 19,235 -19,190 -19,075

Resistance: 19,340-19,390-19,420

– Riches Vanara, Technical and Derivatives Analyst, Stoxbox.

08:21 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Derivative outlook

On the Options front in the September monthly expiry, the 19,000 Strike put option has highest open interest with 64,26,550 contracts followed by the 19,500 Strike put option with 26,56,950 contracts. While on the call side, the 20,000 call has highest open interest with 25,04,150 contracts followed by the 19,500 Call strike with 21,27,950 contracts.

08:20 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 F&O ban list

The National Stock Exchange has Indiabulls Housing Finance and BHEL securities on its F&O ban list for 1 September.

08:13 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Currency outlook

“USDINR spot closed 5 paise higher at 82.78, due to demand for dollars from corporates and oil marketing companies. Traders will keep a close watch on the US jobs data tomorrow. A strong data can push USDINR towards 83.00 by next week. We expect a range of 82.40 and 83.10 on spot.”

– Anindya Banerjee, VP – Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities

07:49 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Asian shares

Asian-Pacific markets traded in the green on Friday. Chinese indices Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component increased by 0.47% and 0.53% respectively. Japan’s Nikkei-225 rose by 0.62%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index remained unchanged. South Korea’s KOSPI added a slight 0.02%.

07:46 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Crude oil

Oil prices were set to snap a two-week losing streak as they rose for a fourth consecutive session on Friday due to tightening supplies and expectations of the OPEC+ group of oil producers extending output cuts to the end of the year.

07:46 (IST) 1 Sep 2023 Wall Street overnight

The S&P 500 ended lower and the Nasdaq higher on Thursday after U.S. inflation data matched estimates, underscoring expectations the Federal Reserve could pause its monetary tightening, according to Reuters. On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.48%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.11%.

AU Small Finance Bank set to maintain its industry-leading loan growth

AU Small Finance Bank has demonstrated an impressive performance, achieving a remarkable 54% CAGR in deposits and a 34% CAGR in loans from FY18 to FY23. This growth has solidified its position not only within the Small Finance Bank (SFB) sector but also across the broader mid-cap banking landscape. The bank’s success can be attributed to its strategic expansion of new product offerings, a broader geographical footprint, substantial investments in cutting-edge technology, and a determined focus on physical expansion. These factors are expected to provide substantial support for sustained long-term growth.

Our projections indicate that the bank is poised to maintain its industry-leading loan growth at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 28% from FY23 to FY25E. However, it is important to note that there might be some short-term margin pressure that could impact stock performance. Despite this, we anticipate a considerable acceleration in earnings growth starting from FY25, with a projected 35% year-on-year increase after a 22% year-on-year growth in FY24. This performance trajectory is anticipated to lead to a RoA and RoE of 1.9% and 17% respectively.

AUBNAK has reported a robust 29% growth in loans during Q1 of FY24, in contrast to 48% CAGR achieved over the five-year period spanning from FY17 to FY22. The dominance of retail loans persists, constituting a substantial 79% share. The bank is strategically committed to diversifying its loan portfolio, as evidenced by the notable traction observed in Home Loans. The wholesale loan segment has also demonstrated a commendable growth trajectory. Bank’s management to fortifying pillars of its business operations, with emphasis on Vehicle Loans and MSME sectors, while simultaneously expanding into segments like Housing Loans, Gold Loans, Credit Cards, and Consumer Durable Financing. AUBNAK has made good investments in its operational framework, in addition to broadening its geographical footprint. This twin approach is anticipated to facilitate sustained business expansion while concurrently mitigating geographical risk concentration.

Amarnath Yatra 2023: First batch of pilgrims leave from Jammu base camp – See Photos

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The Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir Manoj Sinha on June 30 flagged off the first batch of Amarnath Yatra pilgrims from Jammu. Before flagging off the batch, Sinha performed a puja.The 62-day yatra pilgrimage will start from July 1. Pilgrims will leave for the twin base camps of Baltal and Pahalgam in Kashmir to journey on the pilgrimage to the 3,880-metre-high cave shrine of Lord Shiva in the south Kashmir Himalayas. Over 3,500 pilgrims have reportedly arrived in Jammu to go on the pilgrimage.

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Jammu and Kashmir Lt Governor Manoj Sinha flags off the first batch of pilgrims for the Amarnath Yatra 2023 after conducting a puja at the Bhagwati Nagar base camp in Jammu on June 30. (Image: PTI)

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Pilgrims shout religious slogans while boarding a bus as the first batch of pilgrims leaves for the Amarnath Yatra 2023 in Jammu. (Image: PTI)

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Security forces personnel keep vigil as a convoy of the first batch of pilgrims leaves for Kashmir. (Image: PTI)

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First batch of pilgrims leaves for the Yatra in Jammu. (Image: PTI)

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Sadhus wait to get themselves registered at Ram Mandir base camp in Jammu on June 30

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 Pilgrims wait for registration at Mahajan hall in Jammu. (Image: PTI)

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A sadhu being examined by the paramedical staff at Ram Mandir Amarnath Yatra base camp, in Jammu on June 30. (Image: PTI)

Petrol and Diesel Rate Today, 23 August: Some cities see revision; Check rates in Delhi, Mumbai, other cities

Petrol and Diesel Rate Today in Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Mumbai, Hyderabad:Petrol and diesel prices were largely constant on Wednesday, 23 August across New Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, and Chennai. Petrol rates and diesel rates have been steady over the last few months. However, individual cities see fluctuations in their prices every day. The prices of petrol and diesel change state by state, depending upon various criteria such as Value Added Tax (VAT), freight charges, local taxes, etc.

The last country-wide change in fuel rates was on 21 May last year, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman slashed excise duty on petrol by Rs 8 per litre and Rs 6 per litre on diesel. Since the cut of excise duty by the central government in May 2022, some states have also reduced VAT prices on fuels, while some have imposed cess on petrol and diesel.

Currently in Delhi, the price of petrol stands at Rs 96.72 per liter, while diesel is being sold at Rs 89.62 per litre. In Mumbai, petrol demands a higher price of Rs 106.31 per liter, with diesel following suit at Rs 94.27 per litre. Meanwhile, in Kolkata, the cost of petrol amounts to Rs 106.31 per liter, with diesel priced at Rs 92.76 per liter. In Chennai, petrol is available at Rs 102.63 per liter, while diesel can be obtained at Rs 94.24 per liter. Here’s a look at fuel prices in other cities:

Petrol, diesel prices in Chennai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Lucknow, Noida, Gurugram

Bengaluru:Petrol rate: Rs 101.94 per litre,Diesel rate: Rs 87.89 per litreChandigarh:Petrol rate: Rs 98.65 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 88.95 per litreChennai:Petrol rate: Rs 102.63 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 94.24 per litreGurugram:Petrol rate: Rs 97.04 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 89.91 per litreKolkata:Petrol rate: Rs 106.03 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 92.76 per litreLucknow:Petrol rate: Rs 96.57 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 89.76 per litreMumbai:Petrol rate: Rs 106.31 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 94.27 per litreNew Delhi:Petrol rate: Rs 96.72 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 89.62 per litreNoida:Petrol rate: Rs 96.65 per litre, Diesel rate: Rs 89.82 per litre

Public sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) including Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) revise their petrol price anddiesel pricedaily in line with international benchmark prices and forex rates. Any changes in petrol price anddiesel priceare implemented from 6 am every day. “Oil companies will be in a position to look at the issue of reducing petrol and diesel prices if the international crude cost remains stable and these firms have a good next quarter,” said Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri a few months ago.