Gold Price Today, 30 August: Gold climbs on declining US yields, traders eye US GDP, Private payroll data

Gold Price Today, Gold Price Outlook, Gold Price Forcast: MCX Gold prices ascended on Wednesday, while silver rates tumbled 0.13%. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold October futures were trading at Rs 59,325 per 10 grams, up by Rs 59 or 0.10%. Silver September futures were trading down by Rs 96 at Rs 74, 589 per kg on the MCX.

Gold prices on Wednesday hovered near their highest levels in three weeks after lacklustre US jobs openings and consumer confidence data assuaged bets of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year, according to Reuters. Spot gold held its ground at $1,936.59 per ounce, trading close to its highest levels since Aug. 7 hit on Tuesday. US gold futures steadied at $1,964.30.

“Gold has support at $1922-1910 and resistance at $1948-1960, while silver finds support at $24.52-24.38 and resistance at $24.82-25.00. In INR, gold’s support is at Rs 59,100 and Rs 58,950, with resistance at Rs 59,450 and Rs 59,610. For silver, support in INR is at Rs 73,910 – 73,250, and resistance at Rs 75,440 – 76,040, Rahul Kalantri added.

Traders eye US GDP, Private payroll data

“Gold inched higher hitting a three-week peak as the dollar and Treasury yields slipped amidst weak economic data points. The dollar fell against its major crosses, reversing from earlier gains, after data showed that US job openings fell in July; benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also ticked lower from 10-month highs. The downbeat Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and consumer confidence reports suggest the Fed may not raise rates as much as previously anticipated, and that’s supporting bullions. US consumer confidence data was reported at 106.1 against the expectations of 116, raising questions on consumer spending and overall confidence in economic activities,” said Manav Modi, Analyst, commodity and currency, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

“The probability for a pause in September Fed meeting has also increased from 80% to 88%, according to CME Fed-Watch tool, increasing safe-haven appeal for gold and silver prices. Investors this week will keep an eye on US personal consumption expenditures price index, and nonfarm payrolls for further clues on interest rate trajectory. Today’s focus will be on US GDP and Private payroll data, which if are reported lower than expectations it could further support gains for gold and silver prices,” Manav Modi added.

IPO irregularities: Sebi initiates third tranche of distribution of disgorged amount to 2.58 lakh investors

Capital markets regulator Sebi on Thursday said it has initiated the third tranche of distribution of nearly Rs 15 crore to 2.58 lakh investors from the disgorged amount in the matter of IPO irregularities observed during 2003-2005.

The regulator has already distributed Rs 23.28 crore in April 2010 and Rs 18.06 crore in December 2015, according to a release.

The regulator had investigated certain irregularities in the shares issued through 21 IPOs during the period 2003-2005 before their listing on the stock exchanges. Following the completion of the investigations, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) directed certain persons to disgorge the illegal gains.

Under the chairmanship of former Judge of the Supreme Court of India D P Wadhwa, a committee was set up which recommended the procedure of identification of persons who have been deprived in the said IPOs and the manner in which reallocation of shares to such persons should take place.

As per the recommendations of the Wadhwa committee, 13.57 lakh persons had been identified as eligible investors for distribution.

Of 13.57 lakh investors, 10.02 lakh investors were paid the full eligible amount and 97,657 investors were excluded due to the costs involved.

“Sebi has initiated the third tranche for distribution of Rs 14.87 crore to 2.58 lakh investors from the disgorged/recovered amount in the matter of IPO irregularities on August 17, 2023,” the regulator said.

In the current exercise, Sebi is distributing amounts to those investors to whom partial amounts were paid earlier and are entitled to receive additional amounts.

Of 2.58 lakh investors, 1.15 lakh investors would be paid the eligible amount in full and the remaining 1.43 lakh investors would be paid in part.

Sebi said that wherever the bank details of the eligible investors are available, the amount is being credited to their bank accounts with an intimation to the investors. In cases where bank details are not available, payment warrants are being sent to the last known address of the investors.

Share Market Highlights: Nifty ends above 19550, Sensex adds 150 pts; Midcaps lead gains, media stocks shine

Share Market News Today | Sensex, Nifty, Share Prices Highlights: Indian equity indices NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex closed in the green on Tuesday, extending the two-day gaining streak. Nifty 50 ended at 19,574.90, adding 0.24% while Sensex rose 150 points to close at 65,780.26. The broader markets closed largely in the green, with Nifty Midcap adding over 1%, while Nifty Smallcap jumped 0.84%. Sectorally, Bank Nifty and Nifty Auto ended flat, marginally in the red. Nifty Media was the outperformer in the pack, jumping over 3% intraday. Nifty Pharma, Nifty FMCG and Nifty IT all added gains as well.

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15:47 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Currency outlook

USDINR CMP- 83 (spot) Indian Rupee depreciated on Tuesday on strong Dollar and weak Asian currencies. Weak global markets and disappointing macroeconomic data from India also weighed on Rupee. India’s services PMI declined to 60.1 in August from 62.3 in July and forecast of 61. FIIs continued to sell in the domestic markets. However, softness in crude oil prices cushioned the downside. US Dollar gained on safe haven demand amid risk aversion in global markets.

– Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

15:43 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Nifty Midcap index crosses 40,000

“The Nifty Midcap index crosses the psychological 40,000 mark, gaining nearly 35% in the last six months, while the smallcap index soars above the 12,000 mark to capture around 40% gain since March 2023. Despite this humongous gain in prices in such a short span of time, we are still more optimistic about both indexes as growing risk appetency will continue to buoy both segments.”

– Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, Master Capital Services

15:36 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Markets at close

Nifty 50 ended at 19,574.90, adding 0.24% while Sensex rose 150 points to close at 65,780.26.

14:54 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Risk in broader markets

“The midcap segment is experiencing a significant upswing due to several key factors. The broader market currently exhibits signs of being overheated, with a limited margin of safety in the short term. This heightened risk is underscored by the fact that any negative catalyst could potentially trigger significant profit-taking. It’s noteworthy that the market appears to be disregarding the adverse impact of a weak monsoon at the moment.”

– Parth Nyati, Founder at Tradingo.

14:20 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Markets regain

Nifty, Sensex wiped out morning gains, descending into the negative territory before paring losses to trade flat. Banking sector losses overshadowed advances in IT and FMCG shares, pushing Sensex into a decline.

13:05 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Midday market check

Sensex traded flat at 65,687.14, up by 59.00 points or 0.09%. Nifty 50 held firm above 19,500 at 19,546.80, up by 0.08%.

12:09 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Gold price outlook

“We believe gold prices are likely to trade within a range of $1933 to $1955 with a negative bias. A fall below the $1933 level will drag prices to the $1924–$1917 levels. The MCX Gold October future is expected to trade in a range of Rs. 59025 to Rs. 59580.”

– Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities

11:39 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Nifty Midcap 100 hits fresh high

The Nifty Midcap 100 index tops the 40,000 level for the first time ever. Constituents IRFC and Devyani International lead the gains.

10:03 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Vishnu Prakash Punglia IPO

Vishnu Prakash Punglia shares listed at 65% premium over IPO price on NSE and BSE amid flat domestic market. The share debuted at Rs 163.3 on the BSE, as compared to the issue price of Rs 99.

09:27 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 IT scrips shining

“A significant trend in the market is the strength in IT index which is up 4.2% in a week. Mid-cap IT has been doing well and now large-caps like HCL Tech, Infosys and Wipro have joined the rally. The order pipeline of IT companies is expected to improve on the back of the expected soft landing of the US economy.”

– V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

09:25 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Raymond up 8%

Jefferies began its coverage of Raymond with a buy recommendation and a target price set at Rs 2600. In response, the share price of Raymond jumped over 8% in trade on Tuesday.

09:22 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Markets at open

Nifty 50 held above the key 19,500, opening at 19,564.65 while Sensex commenced the session at 65,671.60.

09:08 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Gold outlook

“Both the precious metal marked a dull performance as the U.S markets were closed on Monday on account of Labor Day. However, the uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next move and a lack of confidence in China’s efforts to defend the world’s second-largest economy seems to weigh on gold of late.”

– Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities

08:35 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Monsoons cause for concern

“A cause of concern in the near to medium term will be the erratic monsoon spell, and if the rains play truant inflation factor will once again come into play, which could hurt market sentiment going ahead.”

– Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities

08:31 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 FII, DII data

FIIs sold shares worth net Rs 3,367.67 crore, while DIIs bought shares worth net Rs 2,563.48 crore on 4 September.

08:26 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 F&O ban

The National Stock Exchange has Balrampur Chini Mills, Indiabulls Housing Finance, BHEL, India Cements and Hindustan Copper securities on its F&O ban list for 5 September.

08:20 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Technical Outlook

“Nifty is currently in an attempt of showing an upside breakout of the down sloping trend line around 19500 levels. A decisive move above 19600 levels is expected to pull Nifty towards the next upside of around 19800-19900 levels in the near term. Immediate support is at 19430 levels” said Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

07:59 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Asian markets

Asian-Pacific markets traded in the red on Monday. Chinese indices Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component decreased by 0.6% and 0.53% respectively. Japan’s Nikkei-225 fell by 0.31%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped by 1.28%. South Korea’s KOSPI was lower by 0.32%.

07:57 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Crude outlook

Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday as support from China’s measures to shore up its economy vanished, offsetting expectations of an extension in supply cuts by two leading OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia and Russia.

07:53 (IST) 5 Sep 2023 Wall Street on Monday

The US stock markets were closed on Monday, September 4 in observance of Labor Day. Trading will resume on Tuesday.

Rupee may inch up tracking US Treasury yields fall, soft dollar

The Indian rupee is expected to advance on Tuesday in the wake of a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar in the lead-up to a slew of key economic data.

Non-deliverable forwards (NDF) indicate rupee will open slightly higher to the U.S. dollar from 82.63 in the previous session.

“Having said that, it will be a very quiet session with an intraday range of less than 10 paisa. After the excitement when we saw 83, it is back to the quiet days.”

The rupee’s recent low was 83.16, from which it has recovered on the intervention by the Reserve Bank of India.

The rupee’s Asian peers inched up on Tuesday. The yield on the U.S. 10-year bond dipped four basis points on Monday and fell further in Asia to 4.18%. The two-year yields dropped below 5%.

The dollar index retreated to below 104. The U.S. currency, however, is likely to take support from indications from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that rates are likely to stay higher for longer. Moreover, the odds of a rate hike at either the September or November meeting are now higher.

The U.S. consumer confidence and job openings report is due later in the day. The ISM manufacturing number, the non-farm payrolls and the June quarter PCE data are due later in the week.

“Pay attention to today’s U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence report,” DBS Research said in a note.

“DXY (dollar index) could correct lower if U.S. consumer confidence index is lower.”

Closing Bell: Nifty closes under 19400, falls 1% from day’s high, Sensex tanks 200 pts; JFS, Reliance drag

Market Closing Bell: Domestic indices NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex closed in the red on Thursday, erasing all morning gains. After touching an intraday high of 19,584.45, the NSE index crashed over 1% or 200 points to settle at 19,386.70. Sensex settled lower by 180 points at 65,252.34. In the broader markets, while Nifty Midcap 100 outperformed, Nifty Smallcap slipped 0.35%. Sectorally, after opening in the green, the indices ended mixed. Nifty IT gained 0.6% on favourable Nvidia earnings, while Bank Nifty closed flat. Metals, pharma and PSU banking counters ended lower, while FMCG and media stocks fared better.

Technical Outlook

“Technically, the Nifty has formed a bearish candle, which is largely negative. For bulls, 19470 would act as an immediate resistance zone, and if the index is trading below the same, the weak sentiment is likely to continue and could retest the level of 19325-19300. On the flip side, post 19500 breakout the market could rally till 19600-19625,” Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Research (Retail), Kotak Securities said.

Sebi notifies new ‘fit and proper’ criteria for exchanges, clearing corps

Capital markets regulator Sebi has tweaked its framework regarding ‘fit and proper’ criteria for stock exchanges and other market infrastructure institutions, whereby any direction passed against such institutions will not affect their operations.The new rules are aimed at separating the role of an individual from such institutions.In two separate notifications, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) said that ‘fit and proper person’ criteria will apply to the applicant, stock exchange, clearing corporation, depository, their shareholders, directors and key management personnel at all times.

Further, such Market Infrastructure Institutions (MIIs) will have to ensure that all its shareholders, directors and key management personnel are fit and proper persons at all times.If any director or key management personnel of a MII is not deemed to be fit and proper, such entities will have to replace such a person within 30 days from the date of such disqualification, failing which the fit and proper person criteria may be invoked against the MII, as per the notifications issued on August 22.

An applicant has to meet certain criteria to be fit and proper. Those requirements include financial integrity, good reputation, honesty; no conviction in any court for any offence, or any other order like that of restraining by Sebi. The regulator has amended Securities Contracts rules as well as depositories participants rules.In November 2021, Sebi altered the criteria to determine ‘fit and proper person’. It was principle-based and/or rule-based.

The principle-based criteria include integrity, honesty, ethical behaviour, reputation, fairness, and character, according to the notification. Further, the rule-based norms determine the ‘fit and proper’ status of the person based on the disqualifications stated by Sebi.

H1 highway construction just over a quarter of annual target

The pace of highway construction fell sharply in September with only 371 km of stretches completed during the month which is much lower than the average of 639 km a month in the April-August period.

At the end of the first half of this financial year, highway stretches of a total of 3,567 km have been completed, while for the full year, the target is 13,800 km.

The awards for September have shown improvement of 530 km as compared to the average of 347 km in the April-August period. In the first half 2,286 km of highways have been awarded while in the previous year in the same period this figure stood at 4,092 km.

The pick up in awarding contracts for highways was expected as officials had said that issues responsible for the slowdown have been substantially addressed. For the full year the target for awarding of highways has been set at 12,500 km.

Of the total 12,500 km of highways to be awarded this FY, around half of it would be through National Highways Authority of India and rest through National Highways and Infrastructure Development Corporation and Ministry of Road Transport and Highways’ Road Wing.

The ambitious Bharatmala Project offers a strong pipeline of projects.

While pace of construction has slowed during September, the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways has reverted to its original plan of exhausting 91% of its capital outlay by December-end. In August this number was scaled down to 80%.

The resetting the spending target has been necessitated by expenditure of Ra 50170 crore in September. At the end of September the ministry had spent Rs 1.62 trillion or 62% of its capital expenditure outlay of Rs 2.58 trillion. Last year during the same period Rs 1.21 trillion had been spent by the ministry in the first half.

Despite a slower pace in the first half, the ministry is confident of meeting its aim of highway building this year. Last year too by December it had managed to complete 5744 km of highways and then speed picked up and by end of March the total length achieved was 10,331 km.

Green bond issue size for H2 to be finalised soon

Ahead of the announcement of the borrowing calendar for the second half of the current financial year, the green finance working committee, headed by chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, will soon finalise the size of the sovereign green bond issuance against the Budget estimate of Rs 23,765 crore.For the first time, the Centre mobilised Rs 16,000 crore through two tranches of green bonds in January-February of the previous financial year. However, the actual utilisation of green project financing was Rs 18,377 crore in FY23, Rs 2,377 crore more than funds mobilised through these papers.

As against the FY23 revised Budget estimate of Rs 17,168-crore sovereign green bond issuances, the estimate for FY24 is Rs 23,765 crore.“The committee, headed by the chief economic adviser, has asked ministries to project their requirement in the current financial year and plans for the next financial year,” an official said. After the details are collected, the finance ministry will announce the actual green bond issuance size during the release of the H2FY24 borrowing calendar by the end of September. There was no green bond issuance in H1FY24.

Mcap of seven of top 10 firms declines Rs 62,279 cr; Reliance biggest laggard

The combined market valuation of seven of the top 10 valued firms eroded by Rs 62,279.74 crore last week, with Reliance Industries taking the biggest hit. While Reliance Industries, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, State Bank of India and Bharti Airtel were the laggards from the top 10 pack, HDFC Bank, Infosys and Bajaj Finance were the gainers.

The market valuation of Reliance Industries fell by Rs 38,495.79 crore to Rs 16,32,577.99 crore. Hindustan Unilever’s valuation tumbled Rs 14,649.7 crore to Rs 5,88,572.61 crore and that of Bharti Airtel declined by Rs 4,194.49 crore to Rs 4,84,267.42 crore.

The mcap of TCS diminished by Rs 512.27 crore to Rs 12,36,466.64 crore and that of State Bank of India dropped by Rs 490.86 crore to Rs 5,08,435.14 crore. However, the valuation of HDFC Bank jumped Rs 10,917.11 crore to Rs 11,92,752.19 crore and that of Infosys rallied by Rs 9,338.31 crore to Rs 5,98,917.39 crore.The mcap of Bajaj Finance climbed Rs 6,562.1 crore to Rs 4,43,350.96 crore.

Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent. In the ranking of top 10 firms, Reliance Industries remained the most valued firm followed by TCS, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, State Bank of India, Bharti Airtel and Bajaj Finance.

Markets to focus on macro data, global trends, foreign investors activity: Analysts

Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would dictate the equity markets this week, analysts said. Marketmen will also focus on the Annual General Meeting of Reliance Industries Ltd which will be held on Monday.

“This week’s focal point is the eagerly awaited Reliance Annual General Meeting (AGM) on Monday, August 28. This event is poised to have some impact on the market’s trajectory. Shifting to the macroeconomic landscape, India is set to reveal its Q2 GDP figures on Thursday, shedding light on the nation’s economic performance.

Cues from China, foreign investor activities, and fluctuations in the dollar index and US bond yields will play a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics throughout the week, Meena said.

Auto companies would remain in focus on Friday amid monthly sales data announcement. “Global and domestic macroeconomic data, trends in global stock markets, crude oil prices, global cues, movement of the rupee against the dollar, and investment by FIIs and DIIs will be in focus.

“Some macroeconomic key events that will drive the market in the coming week are US GDP data, US unemployment rate, US manufacturing PMI, initial jobless claims, India’s GDP, RIL AGM,” said Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, of Master Capital Services Ltd. Equity benchmark indices may face volatile trends amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. Last week, the BSE benchmark declined 62.15 points or 0.09 per cent and the Nifty dipped 44.35 points or 0.22 per cent.